October 2010 ISM Reports Positive PMI Growth
October 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business came out today with good news- the economy is still growing! The report said, "Manufacturing continued to grow in October, and at an accelerated rate as the PMI registered 56.9 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points when compared to September's reading of 54.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 18th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 15th consecutive month. Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through October (57.4 percent) corresponds to a 5.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for October (56.9 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 5 percent increase in real GDP annually."
Ore goes on to say, "The manufacturing sector grew during October, with both new orders and production making significant gains. Since hitting a peak in April, the trend for manufacturing has been toward slower growth. However, this month's report signals a continuation of the recovery that began 15 months ago, and its strength raises expectations for growth in the balance of the quarter. Survey respondents note the recovery in autos, computers and exports as key drivers of this growth. Concerns about inventory growth are lessened by the improvement in new orders during October. With 14 of 18 industries reporting growth in October, manufacturing continues to outperform the other sectors of the economy."
Moreover, exports are up 6% along with empoloyment, which is up 1.2%. According to the chart below, the customer's inventories are too low, even though they increased 1.5% since September.