US monthly raw steel production ticked higher in July: AISI

Domestic production has remained rangebound over the last year, staying within a relatively narrow range of ~560,000 st in that time. Recall that we saw a 15-month high of 7.71 million st last August, followed by a one-year low of 7.15 million st in February. July mill output was just 168,000 st shy of production the same month last year.

Note that AISI’s monthly production estimates are different than the weekly estimates SMU reports on every Monday. The monthly estimates are based on more than 75% of domestic mills reporting vs. only 50% reporting weekly estimates.

Figure 1 compares monthly production data on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out monthly fluctuations. Raw steel production averaged 7.46 million st per month between May and July. It now stands at the highest 3MMA recorded in nine months. Production on a 3MMA basis was, however, down 2% from the same period in 2023.

Production by region

SMU publishes regional steel production data for the six regions responsible for 5% or more of total domestic production, respectively.

The left graph in Figure 2 shows 3MMA production history from the combined states of Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Production in this region has trended downward since peaking last August. The latest 3MMA through July is 1.88 million st, 2% less than the same period of 2023.

The right graph in Figure 2 shows Indiana production as a 3MMA. Through July, production has risen to a 14-month high of 1.88 million st. This is one of the highest rates recorded since late 2021. It’s only slightly beneath the May 2023 peak of 1.90 million st.

The left graph in Figure 3 below shows the combined 3MMA production in Virginia, West Virginia, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana. Production in this region has marginally recovered in recent months following a dip earlier this year. The latest 3MMA through July is 911,000 st, 2% lower than the same period last year.

On the right side of Figure 3 we have graphed production for the state of Ohio. Production in this state remained strong through July at 883,000 st. Production had reached a 13-month high of 890,000 st earlier this year in February. The July 3MMA rate is 1% greater than levels seen one year prior.

On the left side of Figure 4 below we graph the 3MMA production rate for Texas. Production has surged over the last year due to additional capacity coming online from a new mill. The July 3MMA is now at 533,000 st, just 11,000 st shy of the May peak.

The right graph in Figure 4 shows 3MMA production for the state of Pennsylvania. Production in this state had reached a 13-month high of 365,000 st in June. It slipped to 363,000 st in July. Prior to the last few months, Pennsylvania mill output had trended downwards for nearly a year. July 3MMA production is up 4% compared to the same period last year.

Capacity utilization

The average mill capacity utilization rate for July was 76.4%. This is down from 76.7% in June but up from 76.2% one year ago. The average capacity utilization rate for the year is 76.2%, up from 75.9% in the first seven months of 2023.

On a 3MMA basis, the capacity utilization rate through July ticked up to 76.7%. This rate is within 0.1 percentage point from the month prior as well as this time last year. As shown in Figure 5, the 3MMA utilization rate remains strong compared to levels seen over the past two years.

An interactive history of monthly raw steel production is available here on our website.