Apparent Excess/Deficit (P)
Steel Market Update calculates service center apparent excess/deficit supply to estimate the amount of surplus or deficit flat rolled inventory in the market.
For our apparent excess model, we use 48 days of flat rolled supply for a balanced service center inventory level estimate. We also use historical data to estimate current and projected future flat rolled steel demand. The difference between those two figures is our apparent excess estimate for the amount of surplus or deficit flat rolled inventory in the market. A positive number is referred to as an ‘excess’ in inventories, and a negative figure is referred to as a ‘deficit’.
Each month we update our service center shipment and inventory data, we forecast flat rolled shipments and receipts out over the next 6 months. This provides a future look at our apparent excess model. We also provide a general hot rolled steel price forecast over the future 6 month period.
We believe this is an important leading indicator affecting mill order flows and pricing. This data is available to our Premium members only and dates back to March 2001.
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