Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


This evening I received a note from a reliable source advising me that AM/NS Calvert had been hit by a tornado associated with Hurricane Nate on Saturday. The information provided noted there was damage to the administration building, a storage building and some power lines on the property. There was no mention of any injuries. The note seen by SMU indicated that the mill would begin production at 3 P.M. on Sunday. We reached out to our media contacts at ArcelorMittal for comment, but had not heard back before our publishing deadline. We will continue to follow this story and will report on what we learn from ArcelorMittal once they respond to our requests for information.

Cable news is reporting that President Trump is considering “decertifying” the treaty with Iran, which is preventing them from developing nuclear weapons. Depending on the news source you listen to, the reasons for the potential decertification appear to be related to President Trump not liking what he perceives as the terms of the agreement. At what point does “ethics” become part of the narrative? Or is ethics always involved in each decision made?

How different is the president decertifying a treaty he doesn’t like from a purchasing manager canceling a contract or an order that is no longer priced in his company’s favor? At what point does trust between customers and suppliers become an issue?

Steel Market Update would like to hear from you and your company about experiences (and resolutions) that saved relationships, allowed trust to continue to exist between supplier and customer and how “ethics” fit into the equation. You can send your thoughts to Tim Triplett at Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com or myself at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

I am finally back in my office for a few days (leaving on Friday) and I will be working with the 40+ service centers signed up to participate in our flat rolled steel inventories analysis as we attempt to better determine inventories on the floor of the distributors and the need of service centers to replenish or draw down inventories in the coming months. All of the information collected by SMU will be kept in strictest confidence. We will not provide information regarding what companies are involved or any individual company’s data. If your company would like to participate, send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).

Final thoughts

There’s that concept from Adam Smith we all learn about in our Econ 101 classes: The Invisible Hand. A simple Google search will provide a refresh, but if memory serves I would classify it as something akin to “the market is magic” or “the market’s gonna market.” Today, obviously, we live in a mixed environment. There are a lot of hands out there, and they’re not too difficult to see. In this election year of 2024, one of the most visible hands out there probably belongs to the federal government.

Final thoughts

SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.