Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 12, 2013
We are tired, we have been working almost around the clock in an effort to at least be close to our forecasted Friday, September 13th launch date.
When we go out and teach new steel people about the business one of the stories I like to repeat was about what I would tell virtually every new account that I ever sold, “This is your first order with us, count on something going wrong.”
This is our third website in a little more than five years and the past two did not come up as we thought they would. This one is a lot more complicated so there is a lot more to go wrong.
We are not coming online on Friday. Our goal is to bring the site up within the next seven days (not saying calendar or working days).
We are out soliciting a few companies to act as test subjects to make sure that they are receiving our new newsletter, can open it, get to the website, login and read the newsletter in multiple areas on the site (all at once or by news articles). We should have those people selected and set up by Monday morning. Then it is just testing the heck out of the site to make sure it works the way it was designed to work.
I want to welcome our newest members as well as those signing up for a trial for the first time. I encourage you to be engaged with us and our product. If you have any questions or suggestions please send them to me personally: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
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Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.