Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 3, 2013
This will be a crazy busy week for all of us here at Steel Market Update. Besides working on final preparations to launch our new website we will be conducting our early November steel market survey and we are finishing up on a private steel industry training workshop for one of the domestic steel mills.
As we move into 2014 our intention is to begin to expand our listing of available training workshops. We will have more on those being considered or in development after the new website comes online.
For those of you who are unaware, our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking and Market Fundamentals workshop is available for registration. The workshop will be conducted in Mobile, Alabama which should be much warmer in early February than northern climates. The dates for the workshop are February 4 & 5th. We will tour the SSAB plate and hot strip mill which is located in Axis, Alabama just outside of Mobile.
Our Steel 101 workshops are designed for those new to the industry or just becoming acquainted with the industry. We also recommend it for those moving from one position to another within a company as well as those who just want a refresher course. Our instructors have over 160 years of combined experience within the industry as metallurgists, sales and sales management, purchasing and training.
You can find more details about our Steel 101 workshop on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com in the Events section or you can click on the Steel 101 rotating banner at the top of our existing website.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?

Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.