Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 14, 2014
Steel Market Update will conduct our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis beginning on Monday morning at 8 AM ET. We encourage those who receive an invitation to participate in our survey to click on the link and spend five minutes answering our inquiries about market conditions, demand, inventories, foreign steel and steel pricing. All information collected is confidential and we do not identify any of our contributors. If you would like to become a contributor to our twice monthly market survey please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Our next Steel 101 is open for registration. The workshop will be held in Dearborn, Michigan and we will tour the Severstal Dearborn steel mill. Contact me if you have any questions about the workshop. I can be reached at: 800-432-3475.
I am in the office all week this week after traveling for most of the past two weeks.
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.