SMU Data and Models
Hot Rolled Lead Times Slip – Others Rally
Written by John Packard
February 23, 2014
Domestic mill lead times hardly budged according to our most recent SMU steel market survey of the flat rolled steel market. Those participating in our survey put the average hot rolled lead time at 3.70 weeks. This is down slightly from the 3.89 weeks measured at the beginning of the month. The three month moving average for HR lead times is 4.12 weeks.
All of the other products – cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume actually saw increases in their lead times compared to the beginning of February.
The 3 month moving average for cold rolled is 6.33 weeks so our current reading of 6.40 is slightly above the 3MMA. The galvanized 3MMA is 6.28 weeks and like cold rolled the current reading of 6.46 is above the moving average. Lastly, the Galvalume 3MMA is 6.68 weeks and the current 6.73 weeks is above the 3 month moving average.
When looking back to where lead times were measured one year ago, we find in each and every case the market is stronger this year than last. This may be why steel prices are $35 per ton higher than this same time last year.
If you would like to see more detail and history we have an interactive graph and table of all of the data collected based on our surveys on our website. This data is available for Premium, Executive and free trial members. You will need to log into the site and the data can be found under the Analysis tab (Survey Results – Lead Times).
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
Steelmaking raw material costs mixed through May
According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.