Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 14, 2014
Tomorrow is St. Patrick’s Day – it is also the beginning of the Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market analysis for mid-March. Invitations should be out around 8 AM ET. If you receive one please take a few minutes to click on the link contained in the email and respond to our questionnaire.
John Temples will be at the SBB/Platts North American Scrap and Steel Conference this week in Chicago as I travel to Orlando to speak to the Association of Steel Distributors. Next week I will be traveling to Toronto to speak to the Toronto Steel Buyers and Associates dinner on March 26th (please send warm weather to Toronto).
A note that we still have openings in our next Steel 101 workshop at The Henry Hotel (named after Henry Ford) in Dearborn, Michigan. The workshop will include a tour of the fully integrated Severstal Dearborn steel mill. The program and registration are available on our website or you can contact our offices for more information: 800-432-3475.
I have been asked my opinion on whether or not the domestic steel prices have halted their slide and if they will rise from here. I have asked those questions in this week’s survey and I don’t want to push the responses one way or another. But, I will address the issue as the week progresses.
Is there a chance the domestic mills may announce a price increase – maybe as early as this week? Prices are down $65 per ton from the peak (more if you count what the domestic mills last price increases were calling for – hot rolled base prices in excess of $700 per ton). AK Steel has nothing to lose – they essentially aren’t in the spot market so it wouldn’t take much for AK to lead the way. However, I think the mills will want the increase to stick if any when they do announce one. So, the real question is are mill order books strong enough to support a buyers strike should buyers decide the increases are not yet warranted?
If you are not taking our survey and would like to throw in some comments on the subject please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
While I am collecting opinions I have another question for those of you who are interested in attending our Fall 2014 Steel Summit Conference. I have held preliminary talks with a group who specializes in non-ferrous metals. There is a chance we can dedicate a portion of time (or a sub-program) for those interested in non-ferrous metals (aluminum, copper, zinc, etc.). If this is something that would be of interest to you and your company please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update. Tell your friends, co-workers, suppliers and customers about SMU.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Will a US-UK meeting next week prove a harbinger of tariff deals to come, or will it be just another case of having the rug pulled from under us?
Final Thoughts
When will we see prime scrap become scarce as the worldwide transition to EAF melting increases, especially for HRC production? It's a question I've been asked a lot.
Final Thoughts: The hidden cost of analysis paralysis in the age of uncertainty
With US economic indicators all over the map, it’s no wonder the steel market has experienced a whole lot of analysis paralysis this year.
Final Thoughts
A recurring theme in conversations with some of you and in the comments submitted in our surveys is concerns about demand and uncertainty around tariffs. Where does SMU’s latest opinion polling on President Trump’s tariffs stand? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Final Thoughts
I’ve been getting some calls lately from some of you who want to kick around ideas on where prices might bottom and when.