• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    March 19, 2014

    Housing Starts and Permits in February 2014

    Written by Peter Wright

    In February total building permits exceeded total starts by 38,000 units which would seem at first glance to be a good sign. However digging down into the data reveals a much more complex situation in this market. The two sub sectors, single and multi-family units are behaving differently. Single family permits were 12,000 less than starts, suggesting a slowing in this sub sector as multifamily permits exceeded starts by 50,000 units suggesting an acceleration of apartment construction. In February on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis the ratio of single family to multifamily starts fell below 2 for the first time since June 1986 (Figure 1). This ratio is now well below the long term trend line and is falling indicating a medium term shift that will likely not recover in this decade.

    Peter Wright

    Read more from Peter Wright

    Latest in Analysis

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.