SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index Sets New Record High
Written by John Packard
May 8, 2014
Buyers and sellers of steel continue to grow in their belief that their company will be successful in both the existing market as well as out into the future. A new record high for our Index was achieved this week as our Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured at +59. This is one point better than the old high achieved during the middle of April.
The trend has been for an even more optimistic industry as rising flat rolled steel prices increase the value of inventories on the floor and demand continues to improve in the non-residential construction sector of the steel market. The three month moving average (3MMA) for our Sentiment Index also set a new high at +46.5. One month ago the 3MMA was +43.33 and one year ago it was +18.5.
Future Sentiment showed some signs of tiring after setting a record high in mid-April of +72 it was down almost 8 points, coming in at +64.2 this week. Even so, the +64.2 is considered to be in the very optimistic range of our index and much improved over the +30 reported one year ago.
Below is an interactive graphic of our current Sentiment Index. It can be seen when logged into the website. If you need assistance please contact our office at: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
{amchart id=”109″ SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index- Survey}
What the Respondents Had to Say
As always there were a mixture of responses to questions about sentiment and demand. You may find some of the responses interesting or telling as you think about what impact Sentiment will have on the market, and market prices going forward.
“The increased lead times have put some customers behind and there is a need for inventory now.”
“[It] appears that product demand is supply driven at present. Consumption demand is remaining skeptical within the service centre market. OEMs (depending on segment) are improving forecasts/consumption.”
“Starting to see more and more raw material increases, not just steel.”
“Things have not picked up as much as they should have by now after long winter.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from + 10 to + 100 and the arrow will point to the right hand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment.
Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the left hand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment.
A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic) which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys which are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to enjoy.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.