Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 14, 2014
SMU sources advised us on Wednesday that the steelmaking operations at U.S. Steel Great Lakes (Ecorse) in Michigan had begun. This afternoon, US Steel confirmed that the start-up process was underway with no further elaboration or comment. We anticipate that the mill will begin making prime steel within a few days to a week.
Our newest workshop – Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution will be held in Chicago on June 24 & 25, 2014. More details can be found in the Events section of our website or just click on the link provided.
We will check on the ArcelorMittal C-5 blast furnace which went down late last week at Cleveland Works. We have been led to believe that the furnace will be back up sometime next week and that the company will not lose any orders due to the outage.
A note that I will be in New York City during the Steel Success Strategies conference. I will be attending the Platts conference on Monday and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner that same evening. If you would like to meet with me during the conference please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?