SMU Data and Models
Mill Lead Times: Starting to Move Out
Written by John Packard
August 7, 2014
Domestic steel mill lead times on flat rolled steel are starting to extend compared to what we measured two weeks back. For most of the year lead times have been running within a relatively narrow window (see graph). The new data is suggesting lead times may be breaking above normal patterns.
Based on our latest flat rolled steel survey results, the average lead time for hot rolled coils moved from 4.23 week (mid-July) to 4.63 weeks. This is in line with what we saw for lead times one year ago when hot rolled averaged 4.5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times also move out to 7.00 weeks from 6.68 week reported in mid-July. This is slightly longer than what we saw last year at this time when CR lead times averaged 6.35 weeks.
Galvanized lead times also moved out by half a week. The latest average lead time for GI is 7.03 weeks compared with 6.50 weeks in mid-July.
Galvalume lead times extended the furthest according to those who responded to this week’s survey. AZ lead times averaged 7.90 weeks up from 7.11 weeks in mid-July and one week longer than the 6.82 weeks reported at this time one year ago.
Lead times moving out is a good sign of strength for the domestic steel mills and for flat rolled steel pricing. We will be curious to see if the addition of the #7 blast furnace at ArcelorMittal Indiana Harbor will have any impact on lead times in the coming weeks.
A full history of our lead time data for each individual product can be found on our website by going to the Analysis Tab > Survey Results > Lead Times or by clicking here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times flatten out
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.
SMU Survey: More mills willing to deal on sheet prices, less so on plate
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.