Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 22, 2014
OMG – It is the last full week before our Steel Summit Conference. Our days (and nights) are cram packed as we work with our speakers to provide their power point presentations, answer any questions that they may have and make sure that as many as possible will be staying for our networking/cocktail party on Wednesday evening (sponsored by Pacesetter Steel Service, Inc.).
You can tell it has been a little crazy around here. In Thursday evening’s Final Thoughts I kept giving the wrong dates for the conference. No, it didn’t already happen during the month of August. The dates are Wednesday, September 3 and Thursday, September 4, 2014.
Early this week we will send out an email to all of the attendees going over the logistics, program, dress code, how to get to the hotel and convention center and anything else we can think of that might be deemed important. The vast majority of attendees are arriving on Tuesday, so I think the Marriott bar will be the place to be on Tuesday evening.
We will have a registration desk set up at the Marriott from approximately 4 PM ET to 6 PM ET on Tuesday. On Wednesday the registration will take place at the south entrance (closest to the hotel) in the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC).
We are now expecting close to 180 people to attend our conference. We will try to update the website on Monday so you can get a feel for how many companies are represented. If you wish to attend, we are still taking registrations which can be done online or through our office: 800-432-3475.
I want to welcome a last minute sponsor: Steel Warehouse of Alabama.
A note that iron ore spot prices in China have been dropping again recently. 62% Fe is close to $90 per dry metric ton.
Now that the OCTG case has finally been resolved and six of the nine countries named have been hit with duties, is flat rolled steel next? One of the attorneys who will be speaking on the subject mentioned to me late last week that the mills have until the end of September to file or they have to start all over again. The rumor mill has been pointing to late this week or perhaps on September 2nd (which would be convenient for our Steel Summit Conference). However, we have heard rumors about Chinese cold rolled and coated products from China, Taiwan, India and South Korea for about a year now. So nothing is engraved in stone.
Speaking of registrations, don’t forget that our Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop is also available online. The next workshop is October 7 & 8 in Fort Wayne, Indiana and will include a tour of the Steel Dynamics Butler, Indiana facility. Details can be found on our website or you can speak to the instructors at our Steel Summit Conference.
A note about our publication schedule due to the upcoming Labor Day Holiday and our Steel Summit Conference. We will publish this week on Tuesday and Thursday evenings as normal. We will not publish our newsletter on Sunday, August 31st. We will publish on Tuesday, September 2nd and we will not publish (unless it is a brief issue) on Thursday, September 4th. Back to our normal schedule on Sunday, September 7th.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update. Please tell your steel friends, customers and suppliers about us.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?