Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 12, 2014
With iron ore approaching $80 per dry metric ton for spot 62% Fe fines in China (according to our Asian iron ore trading source as well as The Steel Index), I asked John Eckstein, retired metallurgist last with Severstal Sparrows Point and one of our Steel 101 instructors, to comment on the changes the price of iron ore has made to produce a slab and hot band. We compared ore at $120/dmt versus ore going to $80/dmt and he came up with the following:
At $120/dmt the cost of the slab is $505 per net ton and the hot band is $535 per net ton.
At $80/dmt the cost of the slab is $451 per net ton and the hot band is $481 per net ton.
If you want to learn more about the steelmaking process (including how commodity prices affect cost and how it is bought and sold) we still have a few seats left at our next (and last one during 2014) Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop. The workshop will be held on October 7 & 8, 2014 in Fort Wayne, Indiana and will include a tour of the Steel Dynamics flat rolled steel mill. Cost for the workshop is $2000 per person with discounts of $100 for SMU member companies and another $100 per person for those companies sending more than one person. Details and registration are on our website or you can contact our office at 800-432-3475 (info@SteelMarketUpdate.com).
This should be a very interesting week (or weeks) as AK Steel and Steel Dynamics close on the assets of Severstal North America and absorb their order books into their company. As mentioned in our first article, we do not know how the new management will handle the commercial people other than the moves that were already made at Dearborn. We assume that each company will notify the customer base of each plant what they can expect and who will handle their accounts after they close on the facilities.
From here we wish everyone well and the best of luck.
From our perspective the real story in the coming months will be how will consolidation affect steel supply and pricing?
We would appreciate any comments that you would like to make on the subject. Please send them to me directly at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.