Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 17, 2014
I noticed one of the analysts had reported CSN out of Brazil as shipping between 300,000-500,000 tons of flat rolled steel in the 4th Quarter 2014 into the United States. Our sources have advised us that the number is closer to 130,000 tons with a portion of the tons going directly to the CSN mill in Terre Haute, Indiana.
We are in the middle of our mid-November flat rolled market survey. We have asked the same question we did at the beginning of the month concerning the potential for the domestic mills to collect their recent price increase announcement. So far, we are seeing a slightly different result than the 75 percent which were of the opinion that the increase would not stick at the beginning of the month. If you have not yet had an opportunity to respond to our survey invitation please click on the link and gives us your opinion. I will send out a reminder email at 8 AM ET on Wednesday morning to those who have not yet completed the survey.
Iron ore prices are looking like they will break $70 (62% Fe fines in China) and the early talk is for another hit to scrap come early December (small hit). Scrap was down in November $30 to $40 per gross ton and we continue to see weakness in exports off both coasts.
Premium level members will receive a special newsletter tomorrow with two MSCI-related articles with analysis from Peter Wright and our Apparent Inventory Excess/Deficit scorecard and forecast and more. On Friday you will get access to our latest survey results which is in process right now. If you are an Executive level member and would like to entertain upgrading to Premium please contact our office: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we can provide what options we have available.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.