Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 17, 2014
I noticed one of the analysts had reported CSN out of Brazil as shipping between 300,000-500,000 tons of flat rolled steel in the 4th Quarter 2014 into the United States. Our sources have advised us that the number is closer to 130,000 tons with a portion of the tons going directly to the CSN mill in Terre Haute, Indiana.
We are in the middle of our mid-November flat rolled market survey. We have asked the same question we did at the beginning of the month concerning the potential for the domestic mills to collect their recent price increase announcement. So far, we are seeing a slightly different result than the 75 percent which were of the opinion that the increase would not stick at the beginning of the month. If you have not yet had an opportunity to respond to our survey invitation please click on the link and gives us your opinion. I will send out a reminder email at 8 AM ET on Wednesday morning to those who have not yet completed the survey.
Iron ore prices are looking like they will break $70 (62% Fe fines in China) and the early talk is for another hit to scrap come early December (small hit). Scrap was down in November $30 to $40 per gross ton and we continue to see weakness in exports off both coasts.
Premium level members will receive a special newsletter tomorrow with two MSCI-related articles with analysis from Peter Wright and our Apparent Inventory Excess/Deficit scorecard and forecast and more. On Friday you will get access to our latest survey results which is in process right now. If you are an Executive level member and would like to entertain upgrading to Premium please contact our office: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we can provide what options we have available.
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John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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I sort of expected big news last Friday and over the long, Memorial Day weekend. Because that's become more the norm than the exception for steel this year. Sure enough, Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday afternoon that he had given his blessing to a “partnership” between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. And then over the weekend we had market moving new on tariffs, this time involving the EU.
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We're going to have to wait a bit longer for the final outcome of the Nippon/USS deal.
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Sure, demand isn’t as good the market had hoped it would be earlier this year. But assuming it doesn’t fall of a cliff, buyers will have to restock at some point. And that might give domestic mills enough leverage to raise prices again.
Final Thoughts
While I would anticipate market sentiment to pivot and improve if all the questions around tariffs were answered, that still leaves us with a few other factors.