• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    This is the first Steel Market Update Executive newsletter of the year (we produced our first Premium newsletter on Friday of last week). I can’t even imagine the number of articles I have written about the industry since I began keeping my steel customers up to date on industry events in 2004 (and explaining why they were being abused by their suppliers and how to be proactive). As most of you already know, Steel Market Update was officially incorporated in August 2008 and we have been churning out almost a full book worth of articles each and every month of the year.

    So, I thought the most appropriate way to begin the New Year would be to see how we fared over the past twelve months. From a readership standpoint our renewal rate continues to be in the mid 90 percent range each month and we are adding new members each and every month. Our Premium level membership has been growing as both existing customers and new people begin to understand what Premium has to offer. I thank each of you again for your support over the past twelve months.

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.