Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 25, 2015
I couldn’t escape the snow. Our offices in North Georgia were closed today due to 4″ of the white stuff which paralyzes those in its wake in the South. However, I traveled to Chicago yesterday only to find that the flurries being forecast earlier in the week became closer to 5″ of snow and much, much colder than what they are experiencing back in Georgia. So, if you need to reach me on Friday you can do so by email or on my cell. I will be the voice shivering at the other end of the line (wind chills forecast to be below zero on Friday). I will be back in our GA office on Monday.
I was reading the Armada Corporate intelligence report this evening. One of the items they mentioned was to watch the oil storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma. There are reports that the tanks may be full in the next 8 weeks or so. What does that mean? If the storage tanks do completely fill up oil prices could drop to $25 per barrel or, about half of where it is trading at this moment.
Dr. Chris Kuehl and his Keith Prather also pointed out in their report that the economic data coming out next week will be extremely important. There have been too many “mixed” messages in recent weeks. Hopefully, next week will clear up some of the mess as they believe the economy is growing at 3.5 percent. “But after this wave of economic data is released this week, we could be in for a pretty interesting, and exciting ride.”
Commodities would be one of the items which would reverse course if the growth is confirmed.
I think this is going to be a very interesting year for the steel industry…
By the way, Dr. Chris Kuehl will be one of our Keynote speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta on September 1st & 2nd. Dr. Kuehl was excellent this past year and we are looking forward to his insights. Mark your calendars….
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Now that the USS/Nippon deal has been completed, what's next?
Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.