SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index Unchanged from One Month Ago
Written by John Packard
May 21, 2015
Steel Buyers Sentiment continues to be well within the optimistic end of our range as the Steel Market Update (SMU) Future Sentiment Index was reported to be +61 this week. This is up one point from two weeks ago but unchanged from one month ago. The SMU Future Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful three to six months into the future, was reported at +67 one year ago. All of these numbers are well within the optimistic range of our index.
As you can see by the graphic below, the SMU Future Buyers Sentiment Index has been treading water since the middle of January after coming off a +70 reading at the very beginning of the year. Last year we saw Sentiment improving at this time of year into the early summer months before tailing off.
However, we are beginning to gather information which is indicating a bit of a slowdown in the steel industry which we are capturing in our 3 month moving average.
We try to take some of the weekly volatility out of the numbers by analyzing the data based on a three month moving average (3MMA). Future Sentiment has been slipping over the past few months with the newest data showing a +59.83 3MMA down from +60.67 one month ago and below the +63.67 of one year ago. We have a detailed explanation of our index and what the numerical determinations mean later in this article.
What our Respondents are Saying
This is typical of our respondents, while reporting their business expectations as “good,” this service center executive also left this comment, “At both micro and macro levels it seems demand may be slowing, question now I am asking myself is for how long and how severe?”
Another service center was less than enthusiastic calling the existing market a, “very tough market” and reporting, “Hopefully the market will improve in the next 6 months as we find a bottom.”
While a manufacturing company in metal buildings had this to say, “Looking at a major wave of work headed our way.”
Another manufacturing company associated with the construction markets (especially residential) reported current business as being “well below expectations” and future business as having “just no rebound.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the right hand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment.
Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the left hand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment.
A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic) which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys which are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to enjoy.
Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to almost 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-170 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 46 percent were manufacturing and 43 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance of the respondents are made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business.
Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
John Packard
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