Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 11, 2016
We have added the 2016 Steel Summit Agenda to our website. We continue to tweak the program as we search for the best speakers and subjects that are key to those attending our conference at the end of August (August 29-31, 2016) in Atlanta. We have an exceptional agenda already with keynote speakers representing the economy (Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trends Research and Chris Oakley of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) as well as steel mills (Mark Millett, CEO of Steel Dynamics and Roger Newport, CEO of AK Steel) as well as commodities (Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources). We will continue to have steel and commodity forecasts from Timna Tanners (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) and John Anton (IHS Global Insight) and we will look at various steel intensive market segments as the industry plans for 2017 and beyond. Registration for individuals as well and for groups is open on our website. If you have any questions or need any help, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone: 800-432-3475.
As was mentioned in an earlier article in this issue, the hot rolled AD preliminary determination should be announced sometime late in the afternoon on Tuesday of this week. I spoke with the representative of one of the mills involved who told me that their mill has been very careful not to “dump’ steel or sell steel in the United States below their own domestic prices. Even so, this particular mill is not quoting prices for hot rolled coil until the preliminary AD determination has been posted by the US Department of Commerce. Other mills are not so cautious and continue to ship material confident that their mills are not selling product below their cost to manufacture or below their home market pricing. None-the-less, this ruling is important and could help the mills keep momentum on their side or, it could weaken their position. We will have to wait and see how it goes and how buyers react.
I want to welcome our newest member companies and I want to let them know (and remind those companies who have been with us for awhile) that we encourage questions, comments and suggestions. This is one of the ways we can gauge that we are writing about the right subjects and that we are providing enough detail to keep our readers engaged. I can be reached at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475.
Your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update – please tell your friends about us.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.