Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 6, 2016
A quick note to those who will be attending the Chicago Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner on Thursday of this week. I will be there as well. If you want to get a moment to chat send me an email or text. My email is John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
While communicating with a service center executive late on Friday I was told:
Some other things that are bugging me right now: 1) A number of suppliers have scheduled maintenance coming up. 2) For the most part, mills are shipping on-time right now and managing their order book. If there is any slip in on-time delivery, there’s no inventory out there to cover it. That could be a source of a lot of frustration this summer.
We need to watch production carefully as unplanned outages such as the North Star BlueScope explosion and fire (unknown right now if production will be affected) could have ripple effects through the industry. Especially, as the service center pointed out above, is there is no build-up in inventory to provide a cushion.
We encourage our readers (and everyone in the industry for that matter) to attend our 2016 Steel Summit Conference. I have a feeling there will be much to discuss about the industry and issues affecting manufacturing, distribution and others in the industry come August 29th through the 31st. If you have any questions about the conference that you are unable to get answered on our website please feel free to contact our office at: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.