Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 16, 2016
I am in Sylvania, Ohio at our Steel 101 workshop. I want to thank North Star BlueScope for working with us and coming to our workshop this afternoon to discuss their mill, what happened that caused them to cancel our tour and to discuss their mill with our attendees. By the way, it’s a little out of the way but the downtown area of Sylvania is quite nice with a few good restaurants and art galleries.
It appears North Star BlueScope will be back in operation within the next couple of days. The mill will continue to take their planned outage later this spring.
There is a belief that scrap prices will now drop by $20 per gross ton when we get to June negotiations. A week or two ago the thought was scrap prices would be at worst sideways to maybe up $10 to $20 per gross ton.
Mike Marley of World Steel Dynamics in a note to his customers this evening reported Chinese billet offers to Turkey at $325 per metric ton. A week or two ago we were seeing U.S. scrap sales of 80/20 mix around $330-$335 per metric ton. Considering the cost to convert billet vs. scrap this means scrap prices are way over priced and will need to adjust in order to do business in this important scrap market. We will need to watch this carefully.
We have another day of our workshop so it will be an early sign off of my Final Thoughts this evening.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

Final Thoughts
What's going to be the next big thing in steel?

Final Thoughts
Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.

Final Thoughts
Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.

Final Thoughts
What should you keep your eye on, considering the latest geopolitical events?