Market Data

Domestic Mill Lead Times Slip Across the Board
Written by John Packard
September 8, 2016
The following information comes from our flat rolled steel market trends survey which began last Friday and concluded earlier today. Do not confuse our survey results with actual lead time sheets produced by individual steel mill locations. Based on what our respondents shared with SMU, lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume all shrunk since our last analysis conducted during the middle of August 2016.
Even with the shrinkage in lead times, every product average for this week was still better than what we saw one year ago.
Hot rolled lead times were averaging more than 4 weeks as of the first week of July (4.07). HRC lead times are now averaging 3.19 weeks. In mid-August they were 3.73 weeks while one year ago the lead times on hot rolled coil averaged 3.11 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times also slipped. The new average for CRC is 5.87 weeks down almost one week compared to the beginning of August (6.71 weeks). One year ago cold rolled lead times averaged 5.08 weeks.
Galvanized lead times are averaging 6.19 weeks which is lower than the 6.45 measured during the middle of August and well below the 7.50 reported at the beginning of July. One year ago galvanized lead times averaged 5.66 weeks.
Galvalume lead times dropped to 6.55 weeks and are well below the 7.29 weeks reported at the beginning of July. One year ago AZ lead times were at 6.0 weeks.
As lead times retreat this puts pressure on the domestic steel mill order books. Shorter lead times are a signal of weaker spot prices in the flat rolled markets and that is what we have seen going back to early july.
A side note: The data for both lead times and negotiations comes from only service center and manufacturer respondents. We do not include commentary from the steel mills, trading companies, or toll processors in this particular group of questions.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Market Data
HARDI: Galv demand improves in October, higher prices expected in new year
Participants on this month’s Heating Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council call expect galvanized steel base prices to firm up in the first quarter of 2026.
AISI: Raw steel mill output stabilizes
Domestic mill production inched higher last week, according to the latest figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Prior to the start of this month, raw output had remained historically strong since June.
Steel market chatter this week
What's on steel buyers' minds this week? We asked about market prices, demand, inventories, tariffs, imports, and other evolving market trends. Read on for buyers' comments in their own words...
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Current Sentiment sinks to lowest level since May 2020
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both fell this week, with Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment notching the lowest reading since May 2020.

