SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times Extend YOY
Written by John Packard
December 8, 2016
Over the past four days Steel Market Update has been conducting one of our market trends surveys. The respondents to our queries have provided data indicating slightly longer lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume while galvanized lead times remained steady at mid-November levels.
The lead times reported in this article are the average of the responses collected from all of our steel survey respondents for each flat rolled product. The averages do not reflect the lead time at any one supplier. As an average you can expect to find steel mill lead times at domestic steel producers that may be longer or shorter than what we are reporting below.
The purpose of our survey is to identify any changes in the trend. In this case are lead times moving in one direction or another?
Average hot rolled lead times are closing in on four and a half weeks (4.31 weeks) which is an improvement over the 4.18 weeks we reported in mid-November and much higher than the 2.84 weeks we saw not that long ago in the middle of October 2016. One year ago HRC lead times averaged 3.05 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times, which averaged less than five weeks (4.78 weeks) one year ago are now averaging six and a half weeks (6.58 weeks) up from 6.35 weeks in mid-November and much improved over the five (5.0) weeks reported in the middle of October 2016.
Galvanized lead times were unchanged at 6.84 weeks. This is one week further extended than what we were reporting in the middle of October. One year ago GI lead times were closer to five weeks (5.20).
Galvalume lead times moved out and are closing in on eight weeks (7.85 weeks). This is slightly longer than the 7.36 weeks reported at the middle of November and is about 1.25 weeks longer than what we saw in the middle of October 2016. One year ago AZ lead times averaged 6.13 weeks.
The longer the lead times the more support given to price increases and the pricing power of the domestic steel mills.
A side note: The data for both lead times and negotiations comes from only service center and manufacturer respondents. We do not include commentary from the steel mills, trading companies, or toll processors in this particular group of questions.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rises but caution remains
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-May, SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices modestly recovered in our latest survey.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times fall to multi-year low
Mill lead times shrunk this week for all of the sheet products tracked by SMU and held steady on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate keeps on climbing
Most steel buyers responding to our latest market survey report that domestic mills are willing to talk price to secure new orders. Mill negotiability has continued to rise across all sheet and plate products we track, now at some of the highest levels recorded since late 2024.
Steelmaking raw material costs mixed through May
According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.