US Gross Domestic Product by Region and by State Q2 2016

Our first impression of this data is that it is spottier than we expected. Some points to note are that naturally the great recession is very obvious, the definition of a recession is two or more quarters back to back with negative growth. Three regions were in recession in the second half of 2012.

The BEA produces a map of the United States showing Q/Q growth by state within each region. We have included here the map for Q2 (Chart 1) to show the difference by state which is very significant.

Regions as defined by the BEA are as follows:

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Mideast: Delaware, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania.

Great Lakes: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin.

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota.

South East: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

South West: Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

Rocky Mountain: Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming.

Far West: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Washington.

In the second quarter of 2016, the Far West had the highest growth rate at 0.5 percent the South West was the only region with negative growth. The South West region flipped from the highest growth rate in Q1 2015 to negative growth in Q2 2015 and has had negative growth in three of the last five quarters reported as shown in Figure 2.

Once a quarter we at SMU publish a report of regional job creation which we hope, along with this analysis of regional GDP, will enable subscribers to compare their own corporate results with those of their region to establish whether their business is swimming up or down stream.

Figure 2 is intended to show readers an example of the graphs that we can produce on request for individual regions and states.

The U.S. values in this report are quite a bit different and lower that the official report published in the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) reports partly because the GDP-by-state numbers exclude Federal military and civilian activity located overseas (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The official quarterly report of national GDP is also annualized which as we always report in our quarterly analysis increases the value by a factor of four.