Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 19, 2016
A note about the MSCI data and carbon flat rolled inventories. The MSCI reported hot rolled supplies on the floor of the U.S. steel mills as being 2.21 months supply. Cold rolled and coated supplies were under 2.0 months based on MSCI statistics. Cold rolled was reported to be 1.90 months supply and coated at 1.75 months supply.
As one coated service center pointed out, the galvanized/Galvalume inventories represent 36.7 days supply and that is too low. The problem is the mill lead times are into February and, in some cases, close to the end of February. We don’t think coated inventories will bounce above 2.0 months until sometime later in the spring.
A note to our customers: Steel Market Update will need to raise prices modestly on both our Executive and Premium subscription levels. The increase, which will be $100 taking a one person Executive membership from $1095 to $1195 and Premium from $1995 to $2095, will not begin until February 1, 2017. We will send out a memo on the changes to our pricing in a special email later this week. As in past years if you wish to renew your membership prior to February 1, 2017 we will allow you to pay the existing price levels. If you have any questions give us a call: 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.