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    Analysis

    December 23, 2016

    US Vehicle Sales and NAFTA Vehicle Production through November 2016

    Written by Peter Wright

    Vehicle sales fell slightly to 17.87 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in November, though this still beat expectations. The strengthening job market is supporting vehicle sales and will continue to do so through next year as an average of 170,000 jobs are estimated to be added per month. On the other side of the equation the OPEC announcement of a supply cut could see oil prices rise past Moody’s forecast for $60 per barrel by the end of next year, which would filter down to higher gasoline prices and dampen demand for new autos. Vehicle sales will also face a headwind from financing following the Federal Reserve rate hike and the expectation of more to come. Figure 1 shows auto and light truck sales monthly and that all the growth in the last year has been in light trucks.

    Peter Wright

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