Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 22, 2017
SMU sources advised that US Steel Great Lakes had a furnace issue due to a leaking water line and a weld gas explosion. They were down for about a shift and are now back up and working for the time being.
I wrote the Price Momentum article this evening to make sure that there was no misunderstanding regarding the article I wrote on Sunday evening regarding “cracks” in the price floor. In that article I stated that there were potentially some issues on hot rolled that needed to be watched (and I still believe that), but I did not have information suggesting lower prices being offered on cold rolled or coated steels.
In the article I wrote this evening I quoted a large number of manufacturing, service centers and one wholesaler. I suggest you read those quotes as they are not necessarily singing the same song. This is one of the issues that I deal with each and every week – I have to sift through a large number of comments, opinions and specific orders and then I have to take into consideration any “agendas” that might be part of the process and, then find a way to present that information to my readers that gives them enough detail for them to do further research and then make decisions.
Many of those reacting to my questions today believe we are “close to” the peak of the market. There may still be a small uptick in prices but they will be short-lived. Others are of the opinion “what is going to stop the mills” from pushing prices?
I did spot check a few mills today where I have contacts that I feel that I can trust to provide me accurate information and found the order books strong on cold rolled and coated and good on hot rolled suggesting that any discounted offers were few and minimal.
I am in Alabama for yet another day as we finish up our Steel 101 workshop. I want to take a moment to thank the Nucor Decatur team for their hospitality and an excellent tour of the mill for our group.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.