Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 3, 2017
It is Super Bowl Sunday so I am going to keep this as short as possible. Everyone needs to remember that I lived in Atlanta for 34 years, having just moved permanently to Florida a little more than a year ago. Let’s hope for a good game and great commercials… Go Falcons!
As you know Ray Culley and I are working feverishly on the 2017 version of the SMU Steel Summit Conference. We are scouring the country for the best subject matter to broach as well as the best speakers. We invited Dan DiMicco to represent the Trump administration but we learned over the weekend that he will not be able to join us this year. We will continue to burn the midnight oil looking for the best way to address the new elephant in the room…politics and steel go hand and hand.
We want to do a section on the manufacturing view of the industry. I am looking for a few company CEO’s or VP’s that are able to discuss trade issues, manufacturing issues and to forecast the markets that they serve. If your company is interested, please contact me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475. I will most likely run this as a question-answer panel and not as formal presentations as we want to get the most out of the program. We are all ears and willing to discuss options and opportunities. If you know someone at your company or elsewhere that is an excellent communicator, please send me their details and we will take it from there.
I always listen to our past attendees and take their suggestions into consideration. If there is a subject that you think needs to be broached please let me know. Again, I am all ears.
Registration for the 7th SMU Steel Summit Conference is open and available online or you can contact Diana/Alison in our office for invoices or to register direct through our office. Their number is 772-932=7538.
We also have another Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop coming up in Ohio in April. On April 11-12, 2017 we will conduct our workshop at the Radisson Hotel at the University of Toledo. We will also tour the North Star BlueScope steel mill as part of our workshop. Details and registration are on our website or you can contact our office at 772-932-7538 for more information, request an invoice, etc.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
Post Script: OUCH! As I told my son who was texting me during the football game no matter how far in front you are the game is not over until the last second has ticked off the clock. Congratulations to New England as they were the better team for the entire 60 minutes (and, of course, overtime).
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.