• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    First, a note about our price ranges and indices published on Tuesday evening. One of the things that I saw during my collection process was what I perceived as strength or weakness in the numbers on certain products. What do I mean by that? When checking our flat rolled steel market trends survey results I look for hints as to the direction prices are moving. In other words I review OEM and Service Center data and try to see if I can find a trend. Hot rolled out of the service centers, were leaning toward the high end of our range. We found 23.5 percent of the service centers reporting HRC spot prices as being over $660 per ton. On the manufacturing side we found the bulk of the numbers at the lower end of the range with the biggest group (36 percent) reporting their spot HRC numbers at $620 per ton. There were more data points for the service center group but we need to be cautious when reporting the numbers over the next few weeks.

    We completed our mid-March flat rolled steel market analysis earlier today. We received the largest number of responses for any one survey so far this year. Of those responding this week 44 percent were service centers, 39 percent manufacturing companies, 7 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel mills, 3 percent toll processors and 2 percent suppliers to the industry (like a paint or chemical company). We will have more details in Sunday evening’s issue of SMU about the responses we received. Our Premium level members will be able to access the Power Point presentation of the survey tomorrow afternoon on the SMU website.

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.