Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 10, 2017
We had a number of companies share foreign import numbers with us as we traveled about the market reaching out to buyers regarding their domestic purchases and the offers coming out of the domestic steel mills. On cold rolled we heard Russia offers delivered to Houston at $33.25/cwt, Turkey at $35.35/cwt and Vietnam $35.15/cwt.
I also have been asking about the quality and timeliness of deliveries out of Big River Steel and Acero Junction. I had a number of people respond to Big River Steel as it appears they are a much bigger and accepted player in the market than Acero Junction.
Big River Steel is getting rave reviews for the quality of the material from most of their hot rolled customers. An example of a customer comment we collected today: “…Steel is great, no issues at all. Good quality steel. Paperwork flow still having issues like MTR’s/BOL’s but is getting better. Trucking situation is horrible. Adding that many tons in Arkansas region has been a disaster getting trucks for everyone.”
We did get one comment about Acero Junction during the limited amount of time that I had to search the market today (remember, we are conducting a Steel 101 workshop today in Ohio). “Regarding AJ… They have done a good job of restarting the mill, and the product was initially workable (and yes, this exceeded our expectations!). As they gain experience, the product has improved to be just fine for CSB in the gauges they are making. They will continue to improve, especially as the slab supply grows more consistent.”
I was impressed with my first visit to the North Star BlueScope steel mill. Having worked for a small domestic galvanizing mill it is amazing to me how well run the mill is and the great job the commercial team, in concert with operations, is able to keep the mill full, or very close to full, month in and month out. If my memory is correct, the parent company – BlueScope, reported the NSB mill as being one of the most profitable businesses they own. I want to thank the executives at North Star BlueScope for their hospitality and efforts to help our Steel 101 workshop attendees to better understand how steel is made.
I was happy to hear from NSB (and elsewhere for that matter) that the industry continues to talk about and to recommend our SMU Steel Summit Conference as THE conference to attend if you want quality speakers and the ability to actually learn (and enjoy learning) while at the same time being able to network with companies from across the United States and Canada. In an article in tonight’s newsletter we introduced a new program that will be presented on Monday afternoon (the first day of the conference) by the consulting firm Applied Value Group. We found AVG through a reader and attendee of past SMU Steel Summit Conferences. The goal is to improve the negotiations process and to work with/listen to a company that regularly works with major OEM’s in automotive and other industries. We hope our attendees will arrive in ATL in the late AM/early afternoon on Monday so they will be able to attend the Pre-Summit Conference Program at the Marriott Hotel and to enjoy the networking at the lounge in the Marriott Hotel as well. You can learn more about our programs, facilities and costs to attend on our website or by contacting our offices: 706-216-2140/772-932-7538.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.