Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 10, 2017
We will begin conducting our mid-November flat rolled steel market survey on Monday. If you receive an invitation to participate, please take a few moments to click on the button in the message, which will take you to our questionnaire. The questionnaire shouldn’t take more than a few minutes to complete. If you would like to be invited to participate in one of our surveys, please send an email message to John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
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Registration is available for the March 2018 Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Merrillville, Ind. (just outside of Chicago). We will tour the NLMK USA Portage steel mill. Details can be found on our website. The January 2018 workshop, which will be in Mobile, Ala., is sold out.
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John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?