SMU Data and Models
Lead Times Inch Up on HR, CR, Galv
Written by Tim Triplett
December 21, 2017
Mill lead times have inched up slightly in the past two weeks following price hikes announced by the major mills earlier this month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels they are seeing from their customers. Lengthening lead times would suggest that the mills are getting orders despite their higher price tags.
Hot rolled lead times averaged 4.47 weeks in mid-December, up from 4.21 early in the month, and are at the highest level since June. At around four and a half weeks, lead times on orders of hot rolled steel are about the same as this time last year.
Cold-rolled lead times have topped six and a half weeks (6.53 weeks), up slightly from 6.26 weeks earlier in December, but about the same level as last year.
Galvanized lead times moved up to 6.72 weeks from 6.53 weeks in early December. GI lead times have not been this extended since early July, though they were over seven weeks at this time in 2016. Galvalume lead times, at 6.50 weeks, are largely unchanged. One year ago, AZ lead times were considerably higher at 7.80 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU’s April at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through April 30.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices recover
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times flatten out
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.
SMU Survey: More mills willing to deal on sheet prices, less so on plate
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.