SMU Data and Models
Lead Times Dip Despite Mill Price Hikes
Written by Tim Triplett
January 4, 2018
Mill lead times on flat rolled steel extended a bit last month, but defied expectations and returned to prior levels despite mill price hikes in December and January, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. Lead time for hot roll remains slightly over four weeks, for cold roll slightly over six weeks, and for galvanized and Galvalume slightly over six and a half weeks.
One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels they are seeing from their customers. At a time when mills are raising prices, one would expect lead times to lengthen, reflecting stronger demand. That does not appear to be the case, at least not yet, as the market moves past the holiday period and shakes out the new mill prices.
Hot rolled lead times averaged 4.29 weeks, down from 4.47 weeks in mid-December. Except for the brief uptick last month, lead times on hot roll have seen little change in the past two months, remaining at about 4.2 weeks since early November.
Cold-rolled lead times averaged 6.27 weeks, down from 6.53 weeks in mid-December, also at about the same level as the past two months.
Galvanized lead times moved down to 6.63 weeks from 6.72 weeks last month. GI lead times have not been this extended since early July. Galvalume lead times, at 6.64 weeks, are up slightly from 6.50 weeks in December.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.
SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.
Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.