Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 1, 2018
Steel Market Update will be conducting our early June flat rolled and plate steel market analysis beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday. If you receive an invitation to participate, please take a few moments to open the email and answer the first question at the bottom of the message. That will take you to the rest of the survey, which shouldn’t take more than a few minutes to complete. If you would like to be added to the invitation list, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I am traveling on Monday as SMU is conducting a Steel 101 workshop in Memphis, Tenn., in conjunction with Nucor Hickman and Nucor-Yamato on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. I anticipate there will be many of you who may want to contact me; you can do so by sending messages to my email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or on Monday afternoon I should be available on my cell phone: 770-596-6268.
During my absence this week, you can reach Diana and Alison in our main office: 772-932-7538 or Brett Linton in his office: 770-596-6268. Tim Triplett can be reached in his office outside of Chicago at 630-513-5916. I will return to my office on Friday morning, June 8.
By the way, our next Steel Training workshop will be something a little different. We will be going to the brand-new AK Steel research facility and then touring their Middletown fully integrated steel mill. AK Steel is a leader in the development of advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) for automotive and other applications. The dates on this workshop are Sept. 18-19, 2018. We will be providing more details and starting the registration process in the next week or so. Stay tuned.
Registrations for the 2018 SMU Steel Summit Conference are approaching 600 executives. I remind everyone that last year we had 667 registrations and 650 attendees (17 got stuck in Houston due to the hurricane). There are still 84 days to go before the beginning of our conference on Monday afternoon, Aug. 27. The conference will conclude that Wednesday afternoon at 3 p.m. ET. The Atlanta airport is but a few minutes away. We do not restrict anyone from attending. If you have any questions about the conference, go to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit or contact our office at 772-932-7538. There is a list of attending companies on our website. If you have already registered, feel free to tell your suppliers and industry-related friends about our conference. It will be the premier steel event of the year in North America.
If you have not yet booked your hotels, I suggest you do so very soon. If you are having any issues finding a hotel, Brett Linton may be able to help, at least get the right phone numbers or website link. Our room blocks are very close to being sold out, so time is of the essence. Brett can be reached at Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
This is going to be an exciting week for SMU, those attending our Steel 101 workshop and for the greater steel industry as everyone tries to make sense of the latest moves by the Trump administration.
This reminds me, SMU tries to take as neutral a path as possible when it comes to political topics and, unfortunately, the steel industry has become a political football. For us, it is not important whether the president is making good decisions about trade with other countries. Our goal is to try to provide as much information as possible. If you don’t agree with our coverage or have opinions that you do not feel are being represented, please send us an email at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will do our best to address your issues.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.