SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Not Much Change
Written by Tim Triplett
July 8, 2018
Mill lead times on most flat rolled steel products saw little change in the past two weeks, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average nearly five and a half weeks, cold rolled a bit less than seven and a half weeks, and galvanized a bit more than seven and a half weeks. Lead times for Galvalume made the biggest move from mid-June to more than eight weeks. These lead times are more extended now than what Steel Market Update measured at this time one year ago (see graphic below).
Lead times on hot rolled steel peaked in early April at 5.73 weeks and generally have trended downward since then. Hot rolled lead times now average 5.39 weeks based on the responses from this week’s market trends questionnaire, up slightly from 5.24 weeks in mid-June. They are still extended compared with a year ago, however, when HRC lead times averaged 4.41 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times are at 7.33 weeks, up slightly from 7.27 weeks in mid-June. Cold roll lead times have been as high as 8.19 weeks in early May. Last year at this time, CR lead times averaged 6.40 weeks.
The current lead time for galvanized steel is 7.71 weeks, down slightly from 7.76 weeks in mid-June and 8.46 weeks one month ago. A year ago, lead times on spot orders of galvanized averaged 6.84 weeks.
At 8.22 weeks, Galvalume lead times bumped up from 7.29 weeks in SMU’s last poll, returning to about where they were in the first week of June.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The more extended the lead time, the busier the mills. Recent changes in lead times have been too small to discern a clear trend as the market approaches mid-summer.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.