SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Not Much Change
Written by Tim Triplett
July 8, 2018
Mill lead times on most flat rolled steel products saw little change in the past two weeks, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average nearly five and a half weeks, cold rolled a bit less than seven and a half weeks, and galvanized a bit more than seven and a half weeks. Lead times for Galvalume made the biggest move from mid-June to more than eight weeks. These lead times are more extended now than what Steel Market Update measured at this time one year ago (see graphic below).
Lead times on hot rolled steel peaked in early April at 5.73 weeks and generally have trended downward since then. Hot rolled lead times now average 5.39 weeks based on the responses from this week’s market trends questionnaire, up slightly from 5.24 weeks in mid-June. They are still extended compared with a year ago, however, when HRC lead times averaged 4.41 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times are at 7.33 weeks, up slightly from 7.27 weeks in mid-June. Cold roll lead times have been as high as 8.19 weeks in early May. Last year at this time, CR lead times averaged 6.40 weeks.
The current lead time for galvanized steel is 7.71 weeks, down slightly from 7.76 weeks in mid-June and 8.46 weeks one month ago. A year ago, lead times on spot orders of galvanized averaged 6.84 weeks.
At 8.22 weeks, Galvalume lead times bumped up from 7.29 weeks in SMU’s last poll, returning to about where they were in the first week of June.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The more extended the lead time, the busier the mills. Recent changes in lead times have been too small to discern a clear trend as the market approaches mid-summer.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.