SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Plate, Galvalume Shorten a Bit
Written by Tim Triplett
November 8, 2018
Lead times for Galvalume and plate products shortened up a bit in the past two weeks, but otherwise lead times for flat rolled products have seen little change in October or November, despite the price hike announcements by the major mills.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The busier the mill, the less likely they are to negotiate on price. Responses to SMU’s latest flat rolled and plate market trends questionnaire show that lead times for hot rolled now average about four weeks, cold rolled about six weeks, galvanized and Galvalume about six and a half weeks and plate about seven weeks.
Demand continues to outpace supply in the plate segment of the market, as mills still have customers on allocation. Lead times on plate orders have exceeded eight weeks in some cases. However, the current average lead time is 7.00 weeks, down from 7.89 weeks a month ago, which suggests that the plate market may be moving toward a better balance.
At 6.30 weeks, Galvalume lead times have shortened noticeably from the 7.60 weeks registered in the last SMU market canvass. AZ lead times topped out this year at 8.40 weeks in June.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.97 weeks, essentially unchanged from October. This year’s longest lead time for hot rolled delivery was 5.73 weeks in April.
Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 6.00 weeks, slightly shorter than the 6.06 weeks in mid-October. CR lead times peaked this year at 8.19 weeks in May.
The current lead time for galvanized steel is 6.58 weeks, down a tick from 6.66 weeks two weeks ago. Lead times on galvanized orders extended as far as 8.46 weeks earlier this summer.
Lead times that are stable or even shorter in some cases are a sign that the mills are having difficulty collecting their price increase. As one buyer commented: “We’re seeing normal published lead times, but the majority of orders are ready early.”
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sentiment inches up from low levels
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices ticked higher this week, according to the latest data from our flat-rolled steel survey.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times hold steady
Sheet and plate lead times held steady yet again this week, according to steel buyers responding to our latest market survey, a trend in place since May.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say mills remain negotiable on prices
The majority of steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey continue to report that mills are open to negotiating spot prices on sheet and plate products.

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.