Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 14, 2018
On Wednesday, Nov. 28, Steel Market Update, along with CRU, will conduct our first SMU-focused webinar. This webinar is available to all current member companies as well as our potential new customers. I will be leading the discussion on how SMU is seeing the current market situation, and a mid-term forecast will be provided by CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores. We anticipate our first webinar will be relatively compact (40 minutes) as we try to provide some detail about the market in a new way for SMU, as well as to answer some of the questions we receive from those of you who will be listening in.
A couple of quick points regarding the webinar: 1) There is no cost to attend the webinar. This is a service for our member companies and those who are considering become a member (customer) of Steel Market Update. 2) Yes, you can register others from your company to listen in. Each person will need to register with their name and email address. 3) If you want to ask a question of Josh Spoores or myself, we request they be submitted in advance, which you can do by sending them to: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Here is the link to register for the webinar, to take place on Nov. 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
I spoke with the owner of a scrap company this afternoon. Scrap demand for ferrous is “solid” and is expected to stay that way. There are three plants that will be buying more scrap in the coming months: JSW USA Ohio, as their EAF is expected to run their first coil from melt sometime this week; Georgetown Steel (wire); and the second blast furnace coming online at USS Granite City. I was told to expect maybe another $10 bump in scrap in December and then again in January, but scrap prices should not go up much higher than $20. World scrap prices are under pressure as steel prices in the rest of the world are faltering. The Turkish mills are most likely not going to pay higher prices and this will put pressure on U.S. prices in the coming months.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?