SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Still Shortening
Written by Tim Triplett
May 9, 2019
Average lead times for spot orders of steel have shortened in the past month, suggesting that the mills are not as booked as they would like to be at this time of year. Hot rolled lead times now average less than four weeks, cold rolled less than six weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume slightly above six weeks. Lead times for plate have declined from nearly eight weeks at this time last year to just five weeks today, according to Steel Market Update data.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill and the more likely they are to negotiate on price.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.86 weeks, down from 4.13 weeks in mid-April. Current lead times for hot rolled are well below the 5.62 weeks at this time last year when steel was in strong demand.
Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 5.69 weeks, nearly a week shorter than just a month ago. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year stretched to more than eight weeks.
Average lead times for galvanized dipped to 6.17 weeks from 6.65 weeks in SMU’s last market canvass. Galvanized lead times were two weeks longer in early May 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is around 6.17 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average 5.00 weeks, down from 5.80 weeks as measured by SMU two weeks ago.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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