SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: HR's Down to 3.6 Weeks

May 23, 2019

Average lead times for spot orders of hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels continue to shorten as mill production, at more than 80 percent capacity, appears to be outpacing demand. Hot rolled lead times are now approaching three and a half weeks, cold rolled less than six weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume slightly above six weeks. Lead times for steel plate have declined to less than five weeks today, according to Steel Market Update data.

Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the lighter the order activity at the mill and the more likely they are to negotiate on price.

Hot rolled lead times now average 3.57 weeks, down from 3.86 weeks at the beginning of May. Current lead times for hot rolled are well below the 5.54 weeks at this time last year when steel was in strong demand.

Cold rolled lead times, at 5.67 weeks, saw little change in the past two weeks. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year averaged 7.34 weeks.

Average lead times for galvanized dipped to 6.05 weeks from 6.17 weeks in SMU’s last market canvass. Galvanized lead times were almost two weeks longer in early May 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is around 6.38 weeks, up slightly in the last two weeks.

Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average less than five weeks. At 4.89 weeks, plate lead times are two and a half weeks shorter than they were at this time last year.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.