Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 12, 2019
We should get a better handle and read on the market, and the strength of the market over the next one to two weeks. The Fourth of July Holiday is over, people are returning to work and decisions are going to have to be made regarding purchases for September through fourth quarter. As you can see from an earlier article in tonight’s newsletter, I have adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Higher from Neutral. We adjusted to Neutral right after the first price announcement, and I think we have seen enough evidence to conclude that at least over the short term prices should stabilize and rise.
Whether this is a “dead cat bounce” is yet to be determined. We saw a typical dead cat bounce earlier this year after the January and February price announcements. It took about 60 days for the full “bounce” to take effect. Stay tuned.
I will be in the office all this week. No more holidays between now and the SMU Steel Summit Conference. Attendance looks like it will be another record (fingers crossed we will reach my goal of 1,000 executives).
SMU Events App will be released at the end of this week. That will give you five full weeks to prepare for dinners, break meetings, conversations, who to meet. The convention center will be set up so that you can have meetings without having to leave the premises. We have great sponsors and exhibitors this year. This will be a dynamic conference. Go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit for more details and to register.
If you need help with registration: Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com This goes to our London offices and they will contact you to get you registered or deal with any issues that you might have. You can also reach out to Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 724-720-1012 and she can assist you from our Pittsburgh office.
If you are totally stymied or just want to vent, I am here for you – John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.
You can register for the next Steel 101 workshop, which will be in Cincinnati on Oct. 8-9, and we will be visiting the Nucor Gallatin steel mill for the first time. Go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101 for details, costs and how to register.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.