SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Extending Following Price Hikes
Written by Tim Triplett
July 25, 2019
Lead times for steel delivery have continued moving out over the past two weeks as the three price increases announced by the mills have drawn more buyers off the sidelines. The average lead time for hot rolled has moved up to more than four weeks, cold rolled to about six weeks, and coated steels to nearly six and a half weeks. Plate lead times continue to buck the flat rolled trend and are slightly lower than reported two weeks ago.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the order activity at the mills, and the less likely they are to discount prices.
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.11 weeks, up from 3.88 weeks in early July. Hot rolled lead times were one week longer in the high-demand period at this time last year.
Cold rolled lead times, at 5.96 weeks, have inched out from 5.72 weeks in the data from the July 1 questionnaire. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year were a week and a half longer.
Average lead times for galvanized have extended to 6.43 weeks, up from 6.22 weeks in SMU’s last market canvass. Galvanized lead times were a week and a half longer in early July 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume has lengthened to 6.45 from 6.13 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel are still moving in the opposite direction, getting shorter as demand for plate moderates. Lead times for spot orders of plate now average 4.11 weeks, down from 4.38 weeks early this month.
The extending lead times for flat rolled steel suggest the mills are busier and thus must be having some success at filling spot orders at their higher prices.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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