Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 29, 2019
Prices continued to move higher this week and the mills seem to have gotten a handle on price momentum both on flat rolled and plate. Whether this is temporary or not will depend on lead times and the ability of the steel mills to fill their order books.
As one buyer told me this morning: “Overall, lead times are out about 1.5-2 weeks from the bottom. We’ll need to see how fast September fills up, since we see a wide variation in lead times among the mills. Having said that, even if September closes sooner vs. later, I am very suspect that we’ll see the market continue higher, and a firm ceiling of $30ish is very likely. Scrap price increases should provide some support/foundation for sheet prices and may help to prevent a reversal in the near term. However, there exists a strong possibility that we see a return to weak order books for October and could see downside risk for late fall and into year-end.”
I am hearing from our readers that they are enjoying the added articles that come from the CRU analysts. Something that helps differentiate Steel Market Update from our competition.
We have been getting a slew of SMU NexGen Leadership Award nominations over the past few days. I am very impressed with the quality of the young people in this industry and I commend those companies that are recognizing and honoring their young talent by nominating them for this award. We will continue to accept nominations until the end of business on Thursday, Aug. 1.
Registration is open for the next Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Cincinnati on Oct. 7-8 and will include a tour of the Nucor Gallatin steel mill. The workshop is about 70 percent sold at this time. For more details and information about how to register, please go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
We are in magic number territory regarding attendees for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. Add your name to the list by clicking on this link to register.
If your company membership is coming up for renewal, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
I am traveling for the balance of the week. At the end of this week I will be in Atlanta working on our opening video(s) for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. If you have not attended one of our past conferences, you may not understand that an SMU Steel Summit Conference is meant to entertain as well as to educate and to promote you and your company through networking.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Will a US-UK meeting next week prove a harbinger of tariff deals to come, or will it be just another case of having the rug pulled from under us?
Final Thoughts
When will we see prime scrap become scarce as the worldwide transition to EAF melting increases, especially for HRC production? It's a question I've been asked a lot.
Final Thoughts: The hidden cost of analysis paralysis in the age of uncertainty
With US economic indicators all over the map, it’s no wonder the steel market has experienced a whole lot of analysis paralysis this year.
Final Thoughts
A recurring theme in conversations with some of you and in the comments submitted in our surveys is concerns about demand and uncertainty around tariffs. Where does SMU’s latest opinion polling on President Trump’s tariffs stand? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Final Thoughts
I’ve been getting some calls lately from some of you who want to kick around ideas on where prices might bottom and when.