Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 19, 2019
Six days to go…
Today, I had a long conversation with Ryan Smith who is the Global Costing Analyst for CRU. Ryan is based out of Australia and will be joining us in Atlanta next week when he will speak about the advantages and disadvantages the domestic steel industry has, and domestic steel buyers need to consider. My conversation with Ryan was fascinating as we discussed where the domestic industry is on the cost curve and what some mills are doing right, and what they could do better. I think if you are a steel buyer, you will be quite interested in Ryan’s presentation, which will come on Wednesday morning at 8 AM.
There is still time to register for the SMU Steel Summit Conference, which you can do by clicking on this link.
All eyes are on Atlanta at this point. The speakers are ready to go, and I am getting closer (the last few days are always the worst for me as I try to make sure all preparations have been made).
I will be leaving my office on Thursday of this week and will not return until next Friday.
If you have any questions about renewals, upgrades or subscribing, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.