SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Mixed Message
Written by Tim Triplett
August 22, 2019
If the price increases announced by the mills over the past two months were gaining real traction, it should be showing up in lengthening mill lead times. According to Steel Market Update data, the impact on lead times has been mixed and minimal.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the order activity at the mills, and the less likely they are to discount prices. The average lead time for hot rolled is now a bit more than four weeks, cold rolled is about six weeks and coated steels are around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times are at four and a half weeks. All are shorter than at this time last year.
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.22 weeks, down from 4.36 weeks in early August. The average cold rolled lead time stretched slightly to 6.07 weeks, up from 5.75 weeks earlier in the month. The average lead time for galvanized dipped to 6.57 weeks from 6.67 in SMU’s early August canvass of the market. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is up slightly at 6.70 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also declined slightly. Lead times for plate now average 4.50 weeks, down from 4.67 weeks earlier in August.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU’s September at a glance
SMU’s monthly review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. This latest report includes data updated through Sept. 30.
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain optimistic
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and continue to indicate optimism amongst steel buyers.
SMU survey: More buyers report mills willing to talk price
Over three quarters of the steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices
SMU survey: Steel mill lead times remain short
We saw a slight upward movement in some products compared to early September, but nothing substantial enough to signal a shift in the market.