SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: Signs of Anxiety
Written by Tim Triplett
August 25, 2019
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index moved lower over the past two weeks as buyers appear concerned about the economy and steel demand. Steel prices remain a source of anxiety as the mills have been only partially successful at collecting their recent price increases.
The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Sentiment Index), as well as three to six months into the future (Future Sentiment Index). Results are posted as both single data points and as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the trend.
Current Sentiment measured as a single data point registered +44 in the latest data, down four points from early August. At this time last year, Current Sentiment was 22 points higher at +66, and much closer to its peak of +78 in January 2018. Current Sentiment, measured as a 3MMA has been fairly flat for the past two months near its current average of +43.17.
As the chart shows, sentiment has been on a downtrend this year since peaking in April. (Note that all the current readings are above zero and on the optimistic half of SMU’s scale. Therefore, industry sentiment overall remains fairly positive, historically speaking.)
Future Sentiment
Respondents were asked to assess their chances for success in three to six months.Measured as a single data point, Future Sentiment registered +49, up a point versus two weeks ago. Future Sentiment peaked at +77 in February 2017.
Measured as a 3MMA, the Future Sentiment Index averaged 48.00, up from 47.00 earlier in the month. Like Current Sentiment, Future Sentiment has generally been trending downward since the second quarter. Future 3MMA peaked at 73.67 in March 2017.
What Our Respondents Had to Say
“The biggest question today is what demand will look like moving forward as there seems to be more potential headwinds on the horizon than tailwinds.” Service center
“Demand is concerning.” Manufacturer/OEM
“There’s far too much uncertainty to feel comfortable.” Service center
“Being a trading company, the assault on free and fair trade will continue to hurt our business.” Trader
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the righthand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment. Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the lefthand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to see. Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-150 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 38 percent were manufacturers and 46 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance was made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business. Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices recover
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times flatten out
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.
SMU Survey: More mills willing to deal on sheet prices, less so on plate
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.