SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Relatively Short
Written by Tim Triplett
September 12, 2019
Mill lead times saw a small uptick following the mill price increases announced in late June and July, but have since reverted back to relatively short levels. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mills, and the more likely they are to discount prices.
The average lead time for hot rolled is now a bit less than four weeks, cold rolled is about five and a half weeks and coated steels are around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times are now less than four weeks. All are shorter than at this time last year.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.97 weeks, shortened from 4.22 weeks in mid-August. The average cold rolled lead time has dipped slightly to 5.65 weeks from 6.07 weeks. The average lead time for galvanized has stayed the same at 6.57 weeks, while the lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is down slightly at 6.67 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also declined over the past two weeks to an average of 3.88 from 4.50 weeks.
Commented one executive, “It depends on the product. Because of indexed deals, I think order books for October were fairly heavy, but I see that dropping off.”
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
September service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 60.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.7 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers declined in September, though still seasonally high. September’s report reflects lower demand, stable lead times, and restocking early in the third quarter at a perceived bottom in prices. At the end […]
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices diverge
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in different directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased to a six-week low, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment ticked up to a four-week high. Both of our Indices continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.
SMU survey: Mill lead times stretch out marginally
Steel mill lead times inched up this week for most sheet and plate products, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU survey: Mills remain open to negotiate prices, most buyers say
Negotiation rates have consistently been in the 70-80% range for over two months, relatively strong in comparison to levels seen across the past year.