Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 7, 2019
SMU continues to pick up negative vibes through the analysis we currently are actively conducting on the flat rolled and plate steel markets. There is obviously something going on that is concerning buyers and sellers of steel. At the same time, one of the steel mills told me today that even though prices on their product are at low levels, their order book is quite strong. Hmmmm…. If you have received an invitation to participate in our questionnaire, please take a few minutes to answer our questions. We will be reporting what we learn later this week and over the weekend.
I am in Cincinnati conducting our 29th Steel 101 workshop. The weather was exceptional today as we toured the Nucor Gallatin steel plant, a mill that is involved in a major transition. Nucor is expanding the Gallatin mill, adding another 1.5 million tons of capacity taking the mill up to 3.0 million tons per year. We toured the new PGAL (pickle galvanize line), which takes hot rolled through the pickle mill and then straight into the galvanized line. This is a totally new production experience for the Gallatin mill, which was only a hot rolled provider prior to Nucor purchasing the facility in 2014. There is a new electric arc furnace under construction, along with a new caster and other equipment. Quite impressive.
We have an interesting group at this workshop. There are manufacturing companies, steel mills, service centers, toll processors, a trader and an investor in the steel industry. I expect a similar mix of companies in our next workshop, which will be held in Ontario, Calif. As part of that workshop, we will tour the California Steel Industries steel mill. You can find more details on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?
Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.