Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 16, 2019
I have been in Pittsburgh these past two days attending the Metalcon show. I will return to my office on Friday afternoon.
I spoke with a service center who is a large supplier to General Motors Tier One and Tier Two. GM built inventory going into the strike and continued to take shipments for one and a half weeks after the strike began. This supplier was told to start shipping again on Monday. The expectation is for a return to normal schedules quickly. There should be minimal impact on prices or lead times as things return to normal flows.
Perhaps the biggest impact will be on the psychology of the market. Having GM back to work may prompt some of the OEMs to start buying again. The mills at the Metalcon show have been telling me their business is good, prices suck (of course) but the orders are coming in.
One mill put a date (tongue in cheek) of 18 days for market spot prices to reach the bottom. My opinion, and that of a few of the very large service center buyers, is we probably already hit the bottom of this cycle. The question, which I addressed in an article earlier in tonight’s issue, is how high can prices bounce and how long will the bounce last?
The information I have been gathering from the Metalcon show, which is filled with mostly metal building, roofing and other construction-related companies, is that business is good and next year is not looking bleak. If the early projections hold true, it will be a good sign as metal buildings tend to lead the markets (along with recreational vehicles).
The rumor that our California Steel 101 workshop is sold out is incorrect. We still have plenty of seats available for the Jan. 7-8, 2020, workshop. You can find more details about the program, our instructors, costs and how to register on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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